Future Invasion Of Mexico Essay Research Paper

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U.S. Invasion of Mexico

In the past decade, the discussion about Mexico in Washington has changed. The discussion used to focus on Mexico’s stability and growth that was provided by their unique one party system. Over the past decade, the Mexican one party governmental system has fallen apart, their economy has severely declined, and violence and corruption have become major problems. The United States can no longer take for granted political and economic stability in Mexico. The problems that are occurring in Mexico do not only hurt Mexico’s economy, but there is a large strain put on the American economy. If these problems in Mexico escalate to a level in which the American economy is severely hurt, it is foreseeable that the United States will have no other option but to take military action to stabilize the Mexican government and economy.

In the book, The Next War, former U.S. Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger predicts a war with Mexico by the year 2003. Even though his stories are fictional, they are based on current problems in Mexico. These problems include out-of-control migrations, the drug war, economic depression, and corrupt government officials. In the past decade, other sources and journalists have made statements that follow Weinberger’s idea of a future war with Mexico. Comments such as, “the United States has been considering scenarios for direct military intervention in Mexico,” give direct evidence of mounting tensions. Other journalists have given their perspectives that coincide with the idea that American action is needed in Mexico, but not necessarily war. These problems stated by Weinberger, and the fact that many political and economic instabilities have arose, give plausibility to the fictional novel The Next War.

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One of major problems in Mexico that puts the United States interests at risk is political instability. From1929 until recently, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had been in control of Mexican politics. Under the Institutional Revolutionary Party there has been corruption and chaos. Many government officials and police officers that are supposedly working with the United States to stop the influx of drugs, have participated in illegal drug trafficking. (Quinones) Also, there have been uprisings of various revolutionary and terrorist groups, the most known being the Zapatista National Liberation Army. Political chaos and violence, such as assassinations, murders and abductions, in Mexico has almost become routine. Victims of this violence range from a Roman Catholic cardinal, the PRI’s presidential nominee, several Congressmen and other prominent businessmen and journalists. (Leiken)

Recently, there has been a slow change from a dominating one party system to a multi-partied democratic system, which has added to the political instability of Mexico. Some of the new parties that are emerging in Mexico are, the Democratic Revolutionary Party, National Action Party, and the Workers Party. (Leithe) In the past presidential election, Vicente Fox Quesada of the National Action Party won the presidential race. When Fox takes the reins of presidency this up coming year he faces many problems. Even though Mexico has undergone these changes, the PRI party has not vanished; it still holds power in twenty of the thirty-one states and has many seats in both the Senate and House of Representatives. (Zarembo)

The second reason that United States interests in Mexico are put at risk is because of economic insecurities in Mexico. In 1994, many factors led to the devaluation

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of the peso and the loss of foreign investor confidence. Also, within the year, an assassination of a high-level political figure panicked foreign investors and led to major outflows of capital. After 1994 and the economic problems Mexico faced, the Mexican economy underwent changes from a closed economy to an open one. The change to an open economy has reduced Mexico’s dependence on oil exports and has helped Mexico start to recover from foreign debt and high inflation rates. (Leithe)

The political and economic instabilities in Mexico affect the United States in many ways. Politics in Mexico are undergoing many changes right now. The future of the Mexican government in uncertain due to the recent elections, the corruption of government officials, political gridlock and the total chaos these factors have created. “It is not hard to imagine how political instability in Mexico could aggravate our trade, immigration and drug problems, swamp our labor market, force increased public spending, harm regional environments, and further weaken our national cohesion.” (Leiken) Just as the Mexican political system has undergone major changes, so has the Mexican economy. Mexico is in the midst of changing its type of economy and is recovering from major debts and financial problems. “What happens in Mexico has always been important to the United States, affecting the physical environment and labor markets of not only the southern border states, but reaching as well the entire U.S. labor market through immigration.” (Leithe) The change from a closed economy to an open economy in Mexico has also given the United States direct financial stake in Mexico’s economy. (Leithe)

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The recent economic and political problems that have occurred in Mexico have made the problems predicted by Weinberger a reality. Currently, the economic and political instabilities have forced many Mexicans to illegally cross the border. The illegal immigration problem does not seem to be diminishing. These problems combined with the insecurities in the future of the Mexican government and economy will cause the United States to take an active role in the stabilization of Mexico to save American interests. Many journalists have noted that Mexico has become a severe problem for the United States. An article in the Washington Quarterly, by Michael Radu, comments about the recent political and economic instabilities and concludes, ?The disturbing developments south of the Rio Grande will become a cancer that destroys both Mexico and the United States.” Another journalist predicts “Mexico in the late 1990’s and early twenty-first century will pose a more proximate security threat to the United States that did the former Soviet Union during the latter stage of the cold war.”(Grayson) These predictions, along with the instabilities within the Mexican government have led me to believe that U.S. intervention is needed to help both the United States interests and the well being of the Mexican government and economy.

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Leiken, Robert S. “Mexcio: the crisis next door” Commentary Oct.

1998: 37-42.

Leithe, Joni. “Mexico: the economic emergence of the United States’ neighbor to the south.” Government Finance Review Dec. 1997: 25-28.

Grayson, George W. “Mexico’s future is up for grabs(Agenda 2000)” ORBIS Wntr. 1997: 91-106.

Quinones, Sam. “Mexican standoff” National Review April 7, 1997: 27-28.

Radu, Micheal. “The looming Mexican crisis” The Washington Quarterly

Autumn 1997: 117-128.

Robinson, Linda. “An inferno next door: Mexico’s drug gangs buy the officials they can-and kill those they can’t.” U.S. News & World Report Feb 24, 1997: 36-39.

Weinberger, Caspar and Peter Schweizer. The Next War. Washington,

D.C.: Regnery,1996.

Wilson, S.Brian. “US Military moves into Mexico.” Earth Island Journal Spring 1998: 32-33.

Zarembo, Alan. “Taking the Reins” Newsweek International July 17 2000: 34.