Imitating modelling of a cattle-breeding complex on basisCedar Bog
Setting a task of modelling. There is a cattle herd structured onthe basic of age. The herd consists ofHeifers, Calves, Milkcows, Cows, Bulls. Each Animal has itsAge. Thedaily increase depends in weight of an animal which defines the weight of itdepends on the age. So,for example, at achievement of the certain age (≈500 days) calves becomebulls and pass fromCalves inBulls, but not all of them. Onlythe quantity which is enough for reproduction of the herd. The others remain calvesuntil they fatten the necessary weight (≈1000 kg). As soon as it occurs, theyare slaughtered. The similarsituation is with heifers. Only at achievement of the certain age (≈450days) they are divided into two categories: milk cowsand cows.Cowsare bred for meat production, MilkCows — for reproduction of herd and productionof milk. According to financialopportunities a farmer defines an initial livestock of the cattle, and thenmakes a plan of reception of a livestock of the cattle in the future. It is required to model the change ofan annual turnover of the herd and its reproduction.
Component of a high level: Farm (Farm) which describes the structureof the model.
HIGH LEVELCOMPONENT FARM_High
SUBCOMPONENTS
Meteo,
Forage,
Effluent,
Herd
COMPONENTCONNECTIONS
Meteo.sun -->Forage.sun;
Meteo.sun -->Effluent.sun;
Meteo.sun -->Herd.sun;
Herd.Dung -->Effluent.Dung;
Effluent.A -->Herd.A;
Herd.Numb_young--> Forage.Numb_young;
Herd.Numb_old -->Forage.Numb_old;
END OFFARM_High
Basic components:
1. Meteo which allows to watch the solar activity during a year (it isbased on the data of the model Cedar Bog)
DYNAMICBEHAVIOUR
suns:=95.9[kJ/m^2] * (1+0.635 * SIN (2[1/d] * Pi *T/365));
WHENEVER T>= TNext DO
sun^:= suns — Oblako;
TNext^:= TNext+ 1[d];
END
END OF Meteo
2. Forage. Norms and diets of feeding are defined in it.
DYNAMICBEHAVIOUR
sun_bio:= sun* Bio_Fac;
WHENEVER T>= TNext DO
TNext^:= TNext+1[d];
Seno^:= 9 *Numb_young + 14 * Numb_old;
Silos^:= 8 *Numb_young + 12 * Numb_old;
Kombicorm^:= 5* Numb_young + 7 * Numb_old;
Koncentrat^:=2 * Numb_young + 3 * Numb_old;
Fosfat^:= 0.04* Numb_young + 0.06 * Numb_old;
Sol^:= 0.03 *Numb_young + 0.05 * Numb_old;
END
DIFFERENTIALEQUATIONS
p':= sun_bio — 4.03[1/a] * p;
BioMassa':=0.48[1/a] * p — 17.87[1/a] * BioMassa;
END
END OF Forage
3. Herd, describing variable statuses and dynamics of behaviour of the herdas a whole. The important component which defines the structure of the herd,its internal interaction. It allows to watch a livestock of the herd, itsreproduction.
# Changingof weight and age of heifers
WHENEVER(Stage = 1) AND (Index
Index^:= Index+ 1;
Heifers: Animal[Index].Age^:=Heifers:Animal[Index].Age + 1;
Dung^:= Dung +10;
IFHeifers:Animal[Index].Age
Heifers:Animal[Index].Weight^:=Heifers:Animal[Index].Weight + ves_2;
END
ELSE DO
Heifers:Animal[Index].Weight^:=Heifers:Animal[Index].Weight + ves_3;
END
END
WHENEVER(Stage = 1) AND (Index > NUMBER(Heifers)) DO
Stage^:=2;
Index^:=1;
END
# Fecundationof heifers
WHENEVER(Stage = 3) AND (Index
Index^:= Index+ 1;
IF Heifers:Animal [Index].Age > (450 + Norm_raspr(10,3)) DO
IF Rand
Heifers^: TOMilkCows SEND Animal[Index]
CHANGING
Age^:=Heifers:Animal[Index].Age;
Weight^:=Heifers:Animal[Index].Weight;
Status^:=TRUE;
Stelnost^:= 1;
END
END
ELSE DO
Heifers^: TOCows SEND Animal[Index]
CHANGING
Age^:=Heifers:Animal[Index].Age;
Weight^:=Heifers:Animal[Index].Weight;
END
END
END
END
WHENEVER(Stage = 3) AND (Index > NUMBER(Heifers)) DO
Stage^:=4;
Index^:=1;
END
# Calvesbecame Bulls, or they are slaughtered
WHENEVER(Stage = 4) AND (Index
Index^:= Index+ 1;
IF(Calves:Animal[Index].Age > (500 + Norm_raspr(10,2)))
AND(NUMBER(Bulls)
Calves^: TOBulls SEND Animal[Index]
CHANGING
Age^:=Calves:Animal[Index].Age;
Weight^:=Calves:Animal[Index].Weight;
END
END
IF(Calves:Animal[Index].Age > (500 + Norm_raspr(10,2)))
AND(Calves:Animal[Index].Weight > 1000) DO
VesTyw^:=VesTyw + Calves:Animal[Index].Weight/2;
Calves^:REMOVE Animal[Index];
UBOI^:= UBOI +1;
END
END
WHENEVER(Stage = 4) AND (Index > NUMBER(Calves)) DO
Stage^:=5;
Index^:=1;
END
# Bulls areslaughtered
WHENEVER(Stage = 5) AND (Index
Index^:= Index+ 1;
Bulls:Animal[Index].Age^:=Bulls:Animal[Index].Age + 1;
Dung^:= Dung +20;
IFBulls:Animal[Index].Weight
Bulls:Animal[Index].Weight^:=Bulls:Animal[Index].Weight + ves_3;
END
IFBulls:Animal[Index].Age > 3000 DO
VesTyw^:=VesTyw + Bulls:Animal[Index].Weight/2;
Bulls^: REMOVEAnimal[Index];
UBOI^:= UBOI +1;
END
END
WHENEVER(Stage = 5) AND (Index > NUMBER(Bulls)) DO
Stage^:=6;
Index^:=1;
END
# Birthof young animal
WHENEVER(Stage = 7) AND (Index
Index^:= Index+ 1;
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Age^:=MilkCows:Animal[Index].Age+ 1;
Dung^:= Dung +20;
IFMilkCows:Animal[Index].Weight
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Weight^:=MilkCows:Animal[Index].Weight + ves_3;
END
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Stelnost^:=
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Stelnost+ 1;
IFMilkCows:Animal[Index].Stelnost > (275 + Norm_raspr(5,1))
AND (MilkCows:Animal[Index].Status= TRUE) DO
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Status^:=FALSE;
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Kol_voOtelov^:=
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Kol_voOtelov+ 1;
IF Rand
Heifers^: ADD1 NEW Animal
CHANGING
Weight^:=ves_1;
Age^:= 1;
END
END
ELSE DO
Calves^: ADD 1NEW Animal
CHANGING
Weight^:=ves_1;
Age^:= 1;
END
END
END
# MilkYield
IF(MilkCows:Animal[Index].Kol_voOtelov >= 1)
AND((MilkCows:Animal[Index].Stelnost
(MilkCows:Animal[Index].Stelnost>280)) DO
NADOI^:= NADOI+ 20;
END
# MilkCowsare slaughtered
IFMilkCows:Animal[Index].Kol_voOtelov > 5 DO
VesTyw^:=VesTyw + MilkCows:Animal[Index].Weight/2;
MilkCows^:REMOVE Animal[Index];
UBOI^:= UBOI +1;
END
END
WHENEVER(Stage = 7) AND (Index > NUMBER(MilkCows)) DO
Stage^:=8;
Index^:=1;
END
# Fecundationof MilkCows
WHENEVER(Stage = 8) AND (Index
Index^:= Index+ 1;
IF(MilkCows:Animal[Index].Status = FALSE) AND
(MilkCows:Animal[Index].Stelnost> (340)) DO
IF Rand
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Status^:=TRUE;
MilkCows:Animal[Index].Stelnost^:=1;
END
ELSE DO
MilkCows^: TOCows SEND Animal[Index]
CHANGING
Age^:=MilkCows:Animal[Index].Age;
Weight^:=MilkCows:Animal[Index].Weight;
END
END
END
END
END OF Herd
4. Effluent (Drains) in which it is provided annual downcast drains onfields (for fertilizer of pastures). Also sale of drains for the manufacture ofmineral fertilizers is possible.
DYNAMICBEHAVIOUR
WHENEVER T>= TNext DO
TNext^:= TNext+ 1[d];
IF ((sun >100[kJ/m^2]) AND (sun
AND (Dung>= 10000) DO
A^:= 0;
FLAG^:= FALSE;
END
END
WHENEVER (T>= TNext) AND (FLAG = FALSE) DO
IF (sun >50[kJ/m^2]) AND (sun
FLAG^:= TRUE;
END
END
END OFEffluent
5. Profit, expenses (profit, expenses),including an economic part of the model. Unfortunately, because of insufficientamount of the information it is designed only in the theory. But further, atthe profound studying of the model, it will be created and, I hope, it willwork on a level with other components of the model.
MOBILECOMPONENT Animal
DECLARATION OFELEMENTS
STATEVARIABLES
DISCRETE
Age (INTEGER):=0,
Weight (REAL):=0,
Status (LOGICAL):=FALSE, # Fecundation / not Fecundation
Stelnost (INTEGER):=0, # Duration of the pregnancy
Kol_voOtelov (INTEGER):=0, # Number of calves
MilkYield (REAL):=0,
Manure (REAL):=0
END OF Animal
The results ofmodelling with an initial livestock of the cattle — 30 heifers, 10 calves (allanimals are about one year):
On the givenschedules dynamics of transition of animals from one age groups in others isdisplayed.
We can see,that at achievement of the certain age heifers (a red line) are divided into twocategories: milk cows (a green line) and cows (a blue line). Cows fatten thenecessary weight, and then they are slaughtered. Through the certain timeinterval Milk cows give a gain of the herd and start to be milked.
We can see, that at achievement of the certain age three calves (a redline) become bulls (a blue line), the others remain calves, until they fattenthe necessary weight. As soon as it occurs, they are slaughtered.