Chinas Economic Future Outlook Essay Research Paper

China’s Economic Future Outlook

If China’s economy grows as fast for the next 20 years as it has for

the past 14, it will be the biggest economy on earth:

I feel that China’s drastic improvements over the last 14 years are

overwhelming, with their Real GNP growing at a rate of 9% a year, which

means by, 1994, China’s economy will match the performance of countries

like Japan and Taiwan. China’s standard of living has also increased, and

the number of people who were considered absolutely poor decreased

approximately 63%. I feel with the vast amount of people living in China,

and the economic activity booming like it is, China’s exports will continue

to grow, as well as the standard of living. This will create more revenue,

and more capital for them to produce even more goods and become even

larger, prospering as one of the biggest economies on the earth. I also

feel that China should try to overcome its corrupt system and steadily move

into a free enterprise system.

Competition has been the key to China’s success:

I believe that competition has been the key to China’s success. When

Mr. Deng opened the free market, it brought the first signs of the farmers

becoming more rich since the 1950s. His political genius allowed the

farmers to become rich. He also introduced the “open-door policy” which is

proving to be very beneficial, as they follow in the footsteps of their

strong rich neighbours. Mr. Perkins believed four conditions must be met

for a market system to work well in reforming centrally planned economy. I

believe if China continues to improve its productivity, and the number of

monopolies decrease as studies show, China will move into a capitalist

front only to prosper. An Inflationary crisis within two years will test

the government’s reformist mettle:

The 14th Communist Party Congress, set the official seal on the fourth

wave of economic reform. Market Splintering: l feel that China should

allow labour to become freer, because this will allow workers to be better

suited towards their jobs, and therefor they workers will be more

effective. Infrastructure: l believe that China has to build a railway

system, so it will not have the highest utilisation rates for freight

traffic. l also believe that China should give incentives for students to

enter higher education. Government Finance: l think that the government

should stop making up for losses of state-owned firms, and stop paying

subsidies to these firms and consumers, hence the budget gap would be more

than closed.

Why privatisation may not be needed:

Privatisation in many cases may not be needed because the government

supports many businesses and purchases their products. If the company’s are

open to the market, many jobs will be lost. If foreign ownership buys it

up, many jobs will also be lost, as well as many profits and products.

State owned firms are not ready for the market, because they are geared for

the bureaucrats and not customers. They are more concerned with the

welfare of the employees rather than efficiency. In the past, communism

led to low productive workers, because the more profits they made, were

taken from government. Now things have changed, the more the retained

earnings, the more the employees receive in bonuses, and that will make

them work harder.

A bracing wind is blowing through the open door:

China follows the policies of its East Asian neighbours on foreign

trade and investment. In 1978 China had an isolated economy, with a

minimal share of world trade, commodities, especially oil which was China’s

main export. It has now blossomed into a $300 billion trade by 1995.

Exports has five-fold. China will also receive a lot of foreign investment

from countries, especially japan, which will hit poor parts of China.

China will also be joining GATT soon, and have reached an market-opening

agreement with the US in October. I believe that China should allow as

much foreign investment as possible because it has helped other countries

surrounding them, and may help them.

The Communist Party has nowhere to go but down

l partly disagree with this statement, l feel that once a country like

China has accomplished itself economically like it has (strong and

prosperous future), it will take a lot to bring the party down even though

there might be some good reasons to. Also it may be difficult to go down,

because China is still three quarters rural, and the people in the country

still prefer communism because of the small favours received. Another

factor why the party won’t go down is because if it goes, it will be

replaced by the army, the secret police or warlords. Even though the

communist party has not functioned like it was supposed to, it will not go

down. The communist party has been operating very much like capitalist,

because of the capitalist society which has been introduced over the last

several years. The party has a large role to play in China’s transition to

a full market economy.

China is on its way. the West should prepare

China’s interests lay in foreign investment, trade and economic

reform. China’s main driving force was competition, and they proved that

privatisation and settling the matter of ownership are not so critical in

the early stages of reform. In the years ahead, China must choose between

keeping the communist party or kepping the stunning economic growth. If

they continue to grow at the rate China grows, and keep improving their

economy, and join the likes of Japan, they can combine forces in all

aspects against the west, military wise and economically wise. if China’s

economy grows as fast for the next twenty years like it has for the past

fourteen, it will be the biggest economy on earth.